Bhutto, Musharraf: After the Breakup

As breakups go, it was pretty spectacular. On Tuesday, former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto ended months of speculation over a pending marriage of convenience between her and Pakistan's President, General Pervez Musharraf, by announcing she was breaking off the engagement. "It's impossible to work with him," she told a small group of reporters by telephone. "I'm calling for General Musharraf to step down, to quit, to leave, to end martial law."

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Bhutto was speaking from house arrest in Lahore, where she had just been served a seven-day detention order. Hundreds of police prowled the neighborhood where she was staying, preventing journalists and supporters from reaching her. Trucks filled with wet sandbags had been pulled up to her front gate, dozens of empty buses parked crosswise blocked the street and the neighborhood's entire perimeter had been wrapped in barbed wire and lined with baton-wielding riot police. Anti-government protestors burned a tire, then a car. Paddy wagons disgorged police and sucked up low-level opposition politicians who chanted pro-Bhutto slogans. Bhutto, whose welcome-home rally had been the target of a suicide bomb attack in Karachi on October 18 that killed 156, lamented her choice of housing, saying that she had picked it because it had seemed impervious to outside attacks. "Now we are seeing it's playing to General Musharraf's advantage," she told reporters, "who should be hunting Osama bin Laden but who instead is hunting me."

Since the implementation of emergency rule on November 3, Bhutto has vociferously attacked Musharraf, calling for an immediate return to rule of law, the reinstatement of suspended Supreme Court justices and a lifting of media bans. Yet Bhutto had, until now, refused to rule out future negotiations, prompting critics to dismiss her actions as political theater, suspecting Bhutto would sell out the democracy movement for a chance at another term in office.

On Sunday Musharraf announced that parliamentary elections would be held on January 9, a month earlier than his original declaration, and a key Bhutto demand. It looked like the diplomatic tango would continue in that vein for a while: Choreographed shows of protest by Bhutto, followed by tactical retreats for the general. The end goal was democratic equilibrium — Musharraf would remove his military uniform and in exchange Bhutto's powerful Pakistan People's Party would support him as a civilian President. Bhutto justified her negotiations with the loathed dictator by saying she was ensuring Pakistan's smooth transition to democracy.

But the duet ended in discord on Monday evening, when thousands of PPP supporters across the country were rounded up in advance of a planned democracy march from Lahore to the capital, Islamabad. "It left my party with the conclusion that he does not really want to do business with us," says Bhutto. "It made it clear that he was using us as icing on the cake to make sure no one notices the cake was poisoned."

In many ways, Bhutto's brief alliance with Musharraf may actually work to her, and Pakistan's, advantage. "Bhutto did a smart thing by negotiating with Musharraf," says former Bhutto advisor Husain Haqqani. "By doing so she assured the world that she was not a spoiler, that she was committed to the war on terror. Now it is up to the Western governments to realize that Musharraf is a problem, not the solution."

Even so, it won't be easy. Musharraf too, is a consummate politician, and he has measured Bhutto's weaknesses precisely. Bhutto was allowed back in the country without fear of arrest for longstanding corruption charges — which she claims were politically motivated — on the basis of a controversial amnesty granted by the general. The independent judiciary sacked by Musharraf when he assumed emergency powers had, in fact, been considering appeals to reverse that amnesty on constitutional grounds, and with a newly loyal Supreme Court in place, the general may have the means to yank back his engagement gift, leaving Bhutto vulnerable to arrest and imprisonment.

But the lady has backup. Frustration and discontent with Musharraf's attempts to stay in power are mounting in the international arena. "If it becomes more and more clear that he is not budging," says a Western diplomat based in Islamabad, "then certainly you start thinking of alternatives." The Pakistani Army, which has been suffering a backlash against Musharraf's rule, may agree. "The military does not want to be in this position," says the diplomat. "They want out of politics, and they are upset that Musharraf has placed them front and center."

As a charismatic leader with the force of the country behind her, Bhutto could very well lure the military away from Musharraf, especially if Western powers force him to step down as army chief. Internal pressure on Musharraf is increasing to such an extent that he may be forced to step down regardless. "At this point there is no way to put Humpty Dumpty back together again," says an Islamabad-based analyst, who, fearing a new emergency rule ordinance that prohibits defamation of military personnel, asked not to be named. "If the military asserts power over Musharraf, this will be the beginning of a true transition to democracy in Pakistan."