Subcontinental Drift: Nightmare Ahead

Tuesday, October 22, 2001

United States President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair have the luxury of kidding themselves about what comes next in Afghanistan; South Asians don't. Any student of the region's recent history knows what lies ahead: more tragedy for the Afghans, frustration for Pakistanis and horror for Indians. I'm not a pessimist, but there's really no point debating whether a glass is half empty or half full when the liquid in it is blood.

Day zero: (perhaps six months from now): The U.S.-led coalition and the Northern Alliance eventually take Kabul and overthrow the Taliban regime. President Bush declares victory. (Will his Special Forces get Osama bin Laden, dead or alive? I don't know, and the question in irrelevant in the South Asian context.)

Day 30: In their haste to get out of a hostile part of the world, the coalition gets the United Nations to patch together a "broad-based" Afghan government, including elements of "moderate" Taliban, under the titular leadership of King Mohammed Zahir. Washington pulls back the majority of its troops. (Will Bush continue the War on Terror elsewhere -- in Iraq, for instance? Again, the question has no bearing on the subcontinent.)

Day 120: The "broad-based" government begins to break down. Traditional ethnic rivalries, stoked by the meddlers in Moscow, Tehran, Delhi and Islamabad, reassert themselves. The ethnic groups that make up the Northern Alliance -- Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras -- demand more and more power, pushing the majority Pashtuns into a corner. Push comes to shove on the symbolic issue of demobilizing tribal militias: the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras refuse to disband their guerrilla forces, and the "moderate" Taliban hold on to their Kalashnikovs. Anticipating trouble, the UN beefs up its peacekeeping force.

Day 180: The peacekeeping forces, meant to be umpires, begin to become the target of groups who see them as representing the West and therefore responsible for the political mess. Caught in the cross fire, the general in command of the Blue Helmets asks the UN for permission to shoot back, to disarm the militias by force. He is turned down.

Day 240: The skirmishes between ethnic militias escalate to a full-scale war, Pashtuns versus The Rest. The UN peacekeepers watch helplessly as Kabul's few surviving buildings are reduced to rubble. Having already declared victory in Afghanistan, President Bush refuses to re-engage in the region, but Russia, Pakistan and India have no such compunctions. The Pakistanis back the Pashtuns, while the Russians, Iranians and Indians support the rest. In other words, same old, same old.

One Year Later: Afghanistan is wracked by a confusing civil war with too many combatants and meddlers, making it the perfect base for international terror groups, which will recruit local youth who hate the West for having abandoned their country.

On second thought, Bush and Blair don't really have the luxury of kidding themselves about the future of Afghanistan. They just think they do.

Next Week: How it will play out in India and Pakistan