Subcontinental Drift: India's War Dividend

Tuesday, November 6, 2001

I've said this before, but it bears repeating: New Delhi could have no logical objection to improving relations between the United States and a stable, democratic Pakistan, but it is perfectly justified in being concerned about warming ties between Washington and the military regime in Islamabad. As we've seen in the past, the marriage of convenience between an American administration caught up in an ideological war and a Pakistani dictator determined to hold on to power can only be bad news for South Asia in general, and for India in particular.

And so it will be again. Over the past two weeks, I've been trying to look ahead at how the subcontinent will be affected by the War on Terror, and I've concluded it will be a less stable place, with extreme chaos in Afghanistan and extremist mayhem in Pakistan. The outlook for India is hardly more positive.

[an error occurred while processing this directive]To pick up from where I left off last week, the military regime in Pakistan, confronted with a rising tide of fundamentalist outrage, will seek to channel it toward the old enemy, India. When the snows melt in the Himalayas next April- May, expect fresh batches of jihadis, holy warriors, to cross the border into Indian-held Kashmir. Most of these militants will have been recruited from the Afghan refugee camps and from the ranks of unemployed Pakistani youth. They will be trained to kill by terrorist groups funded by President Pervez Musharraf's junta.

Once they enter Indian territory these jihadis will fan out across the country. The largest group will remain in Kashmir, where, like their predecessors, they will wreak havoc on innocent civilians as they conduct their "holy war" with Indian troops. When under pressure, the Indian Army tends to drop any consideration of human rights and lash out in all directions, taking a heavy toll on the civilian populace.

This happens every year, of course, but I believe the scale will be massively magnified in 2002. The recent strengthening of Indian troop concentrations in Kashmir and the belligerent statements from army brass as well as political leaders suggests Delhi is preparing to step up its military operations in the disputed territory. I wish I could believe that the fighting would be restricted to armed combatants, but experience has showed us that innocent Kashmiris, caught in the crossfire, will make up the vast majority of the casualties.

Meanwhile, some of the jihadis will launch attacks on other parts of India. The Sept. 11 attacks in America have raised the bar for terrorism everywhere, and India's poorly guarded cities are easy targets. No, I don't expect to see planes crashing into skyscrapers in Delhi, or Bangalore, but it requires no stretch of the imagination to see suicide bombers and car bombs -- the kind that have been blowing up in Kashmir in recent times -- going off in Indian cities. Is the Indian government ready for such an onslaught? I have seen or heard nothing to suggest it is.

If bombs (or bombers) start going off in Calcutta and Chennai, the resulting public rage will force the government to take stronger action on the terrorists, and on their sponsors. At the least, this will mean more slaughter in Kashmir. But it may not stop there...