The Battle over Gaza

Two sounds dominate the lives of Israelis living near Gaza: the wail of a siren and, 25 seconds later, the whistling screech of an incoming rocket fired by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. That gives Israeli families just enough time to dive for cover — even as they pray the rocket will miss.

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Israel's Deadly Assault on Gaza

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• Israel Versus Hamas: How to Shape a Cease-Fire

• The Gaza Air Strikes: Why Israel Attacked

At 11:30 a.m. on Dec. 27, a new sound filled the azure Mediterranean sky: the rolling boom of Israeli bombs and missiles slamming into Gaza. Many Israelis climbed the low, green hills outside the city of Sderot and cheered while watching black pillars of smoke rise over Gaza as a wave of 64 Israeli jet fighters struck again and again. It meant that Israel's leaders were hitting back at the Gaza militants who had rained rockets on the communities of southern Israel even weeks before Dec. 19, when an Egyptian-brokered truce between Israel and Hamas officially ended. (See pictures of Israel's deadly assault on Gaza.)

But underneath the black smoke, the Israeli bombs weren't hitting just the rocket men of Hamas, but civilians too. With 1.5 million people packed tightly into Gaza's jumble of cities, towns and refugee camps, it was inevitable that hundreds of ordinary Palestinians would become collateral victims. The Israeli bombardments pounded Hamas strongholds — the Interior Ministry, suspected caches of rockets, hideouts of top militant leaders — but they also caught five sisters asleep at home next to a targeted mosque, kids coming home from school, and a graduation ceremony for police cadets and their proud families. By Dec. 30, more than 375 Palestinians had been killed and some 1,500 injured; the U.N. said at least 62 of the dead were civilians. Hamas' continued rocket barrage had killed four Israelis.

The lopsided toll inevitably led to accusations of Israeli overkill. While the Bush Administration blamed the escalation of violence squarely on Hamas, other world leaders, including France's Nicolas Sarkozy, scolded Israel for its "disproportionate" response. Arguably the most important outside voice remained silent: President-elect Barack Obama would not comment on the conflict, with his spokesman citing the principle that there can be only "one President at a time."

The chorus of condemnation will grow with the proportions of the conflict: Israeli forces are massing tanks and 6,500 troops for a possible land assault into Gaza. In anticipation, Hamas fighters are believed to be preparing Iraq-style roadside bombs and suicide bombers. Judging by Israel's disastrous 2006 incursion into Lebanon, a ground offensive in Gaza could drag on for weeks. "It will be a war of attrition," a senior Israeli military officer predicted to TIME.

A war for what, exactly? The first rule of launching a military campaign is to know how to end it, and Israel lacks an obvious endgame in Gaza. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, having overreached in his attempt to stamp out Hizballah in Lebanon, has announced modest goals this time: he's not promising to eliminate Hamas or even to permanently halt the flow of rockets from Gaza. Both those options would require Israeli troops to occupy Gaza for a long time, with the potential risk of massive casualties. Instead, Olmert is hoping a large show of force will persuade Hamas to stop stockpiling long-range rockets and accept the terms of a new cease-fire, including the release of Israeli Corporal Gilad Shalit, who was captured in 2006.

But even those modest goals will be hard to reach. Despite an 18-month blockade of Gaza, Hamas has shown itself to be adept at smuggling in rockets, many of them believed to be from Iran. And the very ferocity of Israel's campaign in Gaza will complicate chances of a new cease-fire. Although reports on Dec. 30 suggested that the Israelis were mulling some form of truce, it is doubtful that either combatant will agree until it inflicts more damage on the other, even though, according to one senior Hamas official reached by TIME on the telephone from Gaza, the militants' terms could be fairly simple: "If Israel stops its raid on Gaza and lifts its closure of the border crossings, we'll go for a truce immediately." But such conciliatory sentiments are not shared by those Hamas military commanders who are on the warpath. Says Shibley Telhami, a Middle East scholar at the University of Maryland: "Hamas, given the scale of the losses, isn't going to turn and accept a cease-fire."

See pictures of Israel's deadly assault on Gaza.