Israel Election: Politics of Paralysis

Campaign posters for Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, top, and his rival, Israel's Foreign Minister and Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni, bottom, are seen in Jerusalem

Peter Dejong / AP

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Israelis head to the polls today, but the outcome of the vote won't offer much encouragement for peace in the Middle East.

Of the leaders from the four major parties, the two who have been in the forefront of serious peace negotiations with the Palestinians seem the least likely to win or make gains. Tzipi Livni of the centrist Kadima Party and Ehud Barak of Labor negotiated with Palestinian leaders in 2000 and 2008, respectively, on the basis of establishing a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. (See pictures of heartbreak in the Middle East.)

Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the right-wing Likud Party, seems poised to do the best. He has strongly opposed a Palestinian state, emphasizing economic cooperation over a political deal with the Palestinians, he opposed Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, and he argued that the recent Israeli military offensive there did not go far enough in crippling Hamas. (See pictures of Israel's deadly assault on Gaza.)

Avigdor Lieberman, a former Likudnik and leader of the up-and-coming Yisrael Beitenu Party, is a settler in the West Bank who emigrated from the Soviet Union to Israel in the late 1970s. He seems likely to win a strong bargaining position in a new coalition government. He favors a two-state solution but is running what many regard as an anti-Arab campaign; he advocates requiring Israel's Arab population, about 20% of the nation, to sign loyalty oaths or else lose their citizen rights.

Such a political lineup is a sign of how adrift Israel is. In the past, Israel had leaders with a vision and the fortitude to implement it. David Ben-Gurion succeeded in establishing the Jewish state in 1948. Golda Meir guided the country after Israel scored scored an incalculable strategic victory by defeating Arab armies and occupying Arab territories in the 1967 war. Menachem Begin made peace with Egypt in 1979. Yitzhak Rabin signed a deal with the Palestine Liberation Organization before his assassination in 1995.

Today's Israeli leaders have a fuzzy vision and lack the means to implement much of anything. Kadima founder Ariel Sharon and his successors as party leader Ehud Olmert and Tzipi Livni have all realized that political realities and Palestinian demographics mean Israel can no longer occupy the West Bank and Gaza forever. Yet none of them has put forth a sensible plan for peace with the Palestinians or shown the will to reach a final comprehensive settlement. Although Olmert and Livni resumed Israel's peace negotiations with the Palestinians, their three-year terms in office as Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, respectively, will be remembered for two senseless wars — the massive assaults on Lebanon and Gaza — that seem to have only strengthened the militant Islamist factions that were targeted in the attacks. Israel's international standing, meanwhile, has been significantly eroded by those wars as well as the nation's halting commitment to peace. Meanwhile, Barak, an erstwhile peacemaker but the Defense Minister during the latest war, prefers to campaign as a military man. In evident references to Lieberman and Livni, he has reportedly questioned whether they've killed anybody or carried a gun.

One of the results of an adrift Israel is a further fragmentation of Israeli politics, which is likely to paralyze the country's future course, at least for the time being. If Netanyahu, Livni, Barak and Lieberman slice up the vote, there could be weeks if not months of haggling before a Prime Minister can form a new government. That government in turn will be deeply divided on many of the issues related to the peace process.

Certainly the Palestinian groups, Hamas in particular, have done their share to push Israel's political fragmentation along. Israeli voters are understandably wary of politicians who negotiate with the Palestinians and receive suicide bombings and rocket attacks in return. Hamas' pathetic failure to run Gaza as a model state following Israel's pullout four years ago did nothing to bolster Israel's sagging peace camp. (See pictures of Gaza digging out.)

But part of the problem is that politics are badly fragmented on the Palestinian side too. Israel's failure to seriously negotiate on the creation of a viable independent Palestinian state has severely undermined the authority of moderate Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and boosted the rise of the militants of Hamas.

U.S. President Barack Obama's arrival in office comes in the nick of time. He has signaled a strong interest in not just keeping the guns quiet but negotiating an end-of-conflict settlement for the longtime Arab-Israeli dispute. His leadership in the Middle East may be the only way to halt the spiral, strengthen the moderates and create a dynamic whereby Israelis and Palestinians can eventually vote in separate referendums on a final peace agreement negotiated by their leaders. If it gets to that point, I have no doubt that Israelis — and Palestinians — will vote for peace.

Unfortunately, that remains a big if.

See pictures of Israel at 60 years old.

See pictures of a wall in Gaza coming down.