Seoul Searching: The Intercontinental Divide

The U.S. President has South Koreans worried. In his State of the Union address this week, George W. Bush included North Korea, along with Iran and Iraq, in an "axis of evil" directed against the United States, and warned that the war on terrorism is only just beginning. The speech didn't threaten direct military action against North Korea but Bush's words—evoking the alliance of Germany, Japan and Italy during WWII—has unsettled people living on the front line of the Cold War's last active front.

Nobody has more at stake if Bush decides he can't negotiate with the North or, worse still, puts the rogue state on a hit list for his war on terrorism. Seoul is the No. 1 target for North Korean missiles if things ever spin out of control.

But South Koreans are confused as well. Bush has said in the past that he is willing to sit down with North Korea anywhere, anytime. But his remarks this week hardly seemed aimed at bringing the North Koreans to the bargaining table. And the U.S. President's words carry weight: after Bush expressed skepticism about South Korea's "Sunshine" policy of engagement with the North last March, North Korea quickly pulled back into its shell. The rapprochement between North and South has been steadily unraveling every since. Seoul had been hoping Bush's visit here later this month would provide a chance to get the Sunshine policy back on track. But it is now crystal clear—if it wasn't already—that the Americans and the South Koreans are miles apart on how to deal with Pyongyang.

The Donga Ilbo, a leading Korean daily considered critical of the current government, marveled at the difference: while Washington is sounding the alarm about North Korea's weapons of mass destruction, Seoul is talking about sending tourists to a propaganda festival in Pyongyang this April to mark the 90th birthday of late strongman Kim Il Sung. "Covering up and trying to make these different views look similar through flowery words could cause a tremendous disaster," the newspaper editorialized. "The government has to face the facts."

These events only highlight the fact that Seoul has been in denial for some time. President Kim Dae Jung only recently admitted that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il might not be coming to Seoul, as he had promised to do when the South Korean president flew to Pyongyang for a historic summit in June 2000. His foreign minister said recently that the North Korean leader is still coming—he just doesn't know when.

In the long run, President Kim may be right—being nice to North Korea even if they spit on you may be the only way to force the regime to open up in spite of itself. And you can't just ignore the North Koreans and hope they will go away like some kind of bad dream—that just tends to make them crankier. But the Sunshine policy can't fly without American backing, and putting North Korea in the crosshairs of American foreign policy may ground for good any hopes of a peaceful reconciliation between North and South—especially if Kim's government continues to sweep concerns under the rug. Washington and Seoul need to get their ducks in a row or risk a serious rise in tension on the peninsula.