Socialists on Top
Socialist Party supporters turn out for a rally to mark the 1956 uprising.
Wednesday, Apr. 24, 2002
After one of the most fiercely fought election campaigns since 1990, Hungarian voters handed the reins of government to the opposition Socialist Party and a small centrist formation in the second round of the country's elections on 21 April. While the governing coalition led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Party actually won more seats in parliament than any other party, it fell short of winning an absolute majority in the legislature.
Fidesz and its coalition partner, the Hungarian Democratic Forum, won 48.6% of the vote and took 188 seats in the parliament, while the Socialists won 46.1% of the vote and took 178 seats. But with the support of the small centrist grouping known as the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ), which won 19 seats, the Socialists will be able to form a majority coalition government. One other candidate won on a joint ticket of the Socialists and the Alliance.
The results give the anticipated governing coalition of the Socialists and the Alliance a 10-seat majority in the 386-seat Hungarian parliament. Immediately after the first round of elections, on 7 April, the Alliance made it clear that it would not form a coalition with Fidesz. Within days of the first round, the party began talks on cooperating with the Socialists in the second round. The two parties have already governed in a coalition once before, from 1994 to 1998.
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The election was one of the most fiercely fought since the collapse of communism in this country more than 12 years ago. The turnout reflected the intensity of the elections, with 73% of the voters taking part in the second round, more than in any previous elections since 1990. The turnout in the first round was 71%. Analysts attributed much of the divisiveness to the campaign run by the 38-year-old Orban, who whipped up intense public reaction by invoking issues of national pride and warning against a "socialist" threat if the MSZP won the vote.
The Socialists, whose prime ministerial candidate was 59-year-old former banker Peter Medgyessy, fought back by warning that Fidesz might try to form a governing coalition with the far-right Hungarian Truth and Justice Party (MIEP). Orban skirted the issue of cooperating with MIEP for months before finally ruling it out in March. In the end, MIEP did not win enough of the vote to gain seats in parliament.
Medgyessy, who served as finance minister in the Socialist-led coalition government of the mid-1990s, immediately said he would work to ease the tensions that in recent weeks have divided this country of 10 million people. "I would like to be the prime mnister of 10 million Hungarians, not of two camps with 5 million people each," he declared. He also sent his congratulations to Orban for his party's strong performance in the elections.
Orban conceded defeat to Medgyessy in a late-night announcement on 21 April. "I called him and congratulated him," Orban said. "Hungary has been walking a tightrope over the past four years. We won the second round now, but it was not enough for us to stay. We lost a battle, in which the tool of government was torn out of our hands. Hungarians voted for a socialist world. But make no mistake, Fidesz will remain committed to civic values in opposition, as well."
Hungarian President Ferenc Madl said he would consult the leaders of the parties that won seats in the legislature early this week, and will call a new parliamentary session as soon as possible. By law, he has 30 days to do so, and another 30 days to announce the next prime minister. Usually however, the whole process takes less than one month.
Alliance leader Gabor Kuncze said after the vote count was complete that Hungary has "one huge goal: to go and join the European Union." In a reference to Orban's strong rhetoric during the campaign, Kuncze added: "We cannot [achieve that goal] by talking tough and loud." Hungary is a leading candidate for EU membership during the next wave of enlargement. The coalition government of the Socialists and the Alliance is now likely to lead the country into the EU, which plans to accept new members from Central and Eastern Europe in 2004.
The second round of the elections was held to decide the winners in 131 constituencies where no candidate won at least 50% of the vote in the first round. Hungary's complicated electoral system combines elements of proportional representation and first-past-the-post models. In the first round, which decided some of the first-past-the-post constituencies and the proportional representation vote, the Socialists took a narrow lead ahead of Fidesz. Analysts also argued that the confrontational tone adopted by Orban and Fidesz seemed to have backfired in some parts of the country. In the capital Budapest, for instance, Socialist or Alliance candidates won 29 seats, while Fidesz took only three seats.
Fidesz focused its efforts on securing votes in the countryside, organizing three mass rallies over the past two weeks and bussing in supporters from rural areas. One of the rallies, held in front of the parliament building in Budapest on 13 April, drew hundreds of thousands of people. But it was not enough for Fidesz to win re-election, particularly since the party has no potential coalition partners in parliament.
This article was edited and adapted from Transitions Online's Balkan Reconstruction Report. A longer version is available at: balkanreport.tol.cz
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