Subcontinental Drift: Does it Sting, Pervez?

Wednesday, May 1, 2002
The low turnout for Tuesday's referendum is a thunderous slap in the face for Pervez Musharraf. The Pakistani general was hoping his people would wholeheartedly endorse his desire for a five-year term as President, but most didn't even bother to turn up to vote. The government claims the turnout was around 30%; the opposition says that despite widespread electoral fraud (a charge corroborated by reports in Pakistani papers) it was more like 5%. The truth probably lies somewhere in-between.

And this occurred despite the fact that the general's name was the only one on the ballot. Plus he used every resource of the state to mount over a dozen lavish public rallies (while allowing the Opposition just one, and at very short notice at that!) that got blanket coverage in the state-run media. For the past couple of weeks, Pakistan has been inundated with giant plywood cutouts of the general and hoardings singing his praises in terms that would make the subcontinent's megalomanic politicians blush. No expense or effort was spared in selling Musharraf as The Leader Who Would Save Pakistan. But Pakistanis weren't buying.

	Should Pervez Musharraf continue to rule Pakistan for the next five years? Yes No Not Sure

By definition, dictators have no shame, so it would be unreasonable to expect Musharraf to recognize that he has been hoist by his own petard. Indeed, even before the votes were in, his spin doctors, anticipating the outcome, were scrambling to make excuses. Referendums "always" yield low turnouts, they said, disingenuously, and the fact that most Pakistanis didn't vote only meant they were happy with the status quo. That's the dictator's definition of democracy: people show their approval by NOT voting for you!

It's the same warped attitude that allowed Musharraf to claim a victory when the Pakistani Supreme Court threw out suits brought by opposition figures and ruled the referendum legal. Well, duh! For those who don't remember, Musharraf castrated the court shortly after he seized power, sacking all independent-minded judges and forcing the rest to swear an oath of allegiance to his regime. Of course the judges would rule his referendum legal.

What hope now for free and fair parliamentary elections in October? I predict that voters won't bother to show up then, too. After all, with Musharraf appropriating all real power, the MPs will be little more than straw men—and who would vote for them? What is worse, the general let it be known (just a couple of days before the referendum) that he was of a mind to stay on for a second five-year term. This means yesterday's charade could be repeated in 2007.