Pro-Independence Vote Rises

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Thursday, May 23, 2002
The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) of Montenegro's President Milo Djukanovic did well in municipal elections on 15 May, according to unofficial results. Although Montenegrin voters were at the polls to choose new local officials in 19 of 21 municipalities in the smaller Yugoslav republic, there was no doubt that the real election issue was a recent EU-brokered deal that set the scene for a redefinition of the relationship between Montenegro and Serbia. As part of the deal, Djukanovic postponed his plans to push for Montenegro's independence.

The test of Djukanovic's party's popularity in the form of local elections came only two months after the president and Prime Minister Filip Vujanovic signed a historic agreement with Serbian leaders on reshaping the Yugoslav federation into a loose union. The accord, mediated by E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana, envisions Serbia and Montenegro sharing common defense and foreign policies but running separate economies, currencies, and customs services. In three years' time, both Serbia and Montenegro will be entitled to decide their future status in a referendum.

The agreement didn't satisfy the hardline, pro-independence Liberal Alliance of Montenegro (LSCG), which had supported Vujanovic's minority government solely because of the DPS's commitment to hold a referendum on independence. The LSCG withdrew its support in late March and the prime minister was forced to resign.

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The local elections were therefore seen primarily as a means of apportioning political bargaining chips in advance of forming a new government or holding future parliamentary elections. The Montenegrin pro-Belgrade opposition demands early parliamentary elections, while Djukanovic maintains that they are not necessary.

But Djukanovic faces presidential elections in the fall, and the results of last week's local elections come as a relief. His party secured outright majorities in five out of 19 municipalities and is well positioned to form coalition governments in at least six other local councils. "I am very happy with the election results. They show that what's ahead for Montenegro is a persistent pro-European and democratic future," Djukanovic said after the preliminary results were presented on 16 May.

The pro-independence parties — the DPS, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), and the Liberal Alliance — claimed overall victory. According to CeSiD, a nongovernmental organization (NGO) that monitored the election process, those three parties gained 3%, or about 7,000 votes, more than in last year's parliamentary elections. This increase in support for pro-independence parties indirectly undermines the E.U. deal with Serbia, but does not directly threaten it.

The pro-Belgrade opposition also expressed satisfaction with the election results, but was not happy with the election process. "The elections were unfair and undemocratic. But, despite a significant number of our voters abstaining, we can be satisfied. A step forward in solving the political crisis has been made, and our coalition has gained additional power,"said Predrag Bulatovic, the leader of the key opposition Socialist People's Party (SNP).

Election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said on 16 May that the voting went according to European Council standards, despite minor flaws in the election process and the partisan stance of the largely pro-independence Montenegrin media. Nikolai Vulchanov, head of the OSCE delegation, said the 70% turnout reflected Montenegrins' wide interest in their future.

Evaluating the results as a "clear success of the pro-independence forces and, at the same time, very clear failure of the pro-Yugoslav parties," leading political analyst Srdjan Darmanovic believes that the voters approved Djukanovic's decision to avoid confrontation with the United States and the European Union when they put pressure on him to forge a deal with Serbia's new democratic leadership.

"The final score, and the victory of the pro-independence bloc, is a little bit surprising, because the polls were showing that the popularity of the pro-Yugoslav coalition was rising," Darmanovic said. "Numerically, we haven't seen major changes in the political landscape, but we can say that the pro-Yugoslav opposition was defeated. Their expectations to take control of major municipalities and seek early parliamentary elections did not materialize. On the contrary, citizens gave wide opportunity to the DPS and the SDP to form a new government with the Liberal Alliance without early elections."

For the first time in the party's history, the Liberal Alliance will be able to form the municipal administration in Montenegro's historical capital, Cetinje, the stronghold of pro-independence politics. Although LSCG officials are pleased with the local election results, party chairman Miroslav Vickovic said that "the local elections showed that agreement with Serbia on a new union was Djukanovic's big mistake."

This article was edited and adapted from Transitions Online .