Belarus' Cozy Russian Ties Are Unraveling

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New signs of worsening relations between close allies Belarus and Russia appeared last week. Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka snubbed an appeal by his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to set up a joint group to analyze the options of Belarusian-Russian integration, and on the same day a Russian newspaper printed telephone transcripts suggesting that the Kremlin had started looking for an alternative to the current Belarusian leader.

The phone conversation, allegedly a record of a tapped conversation between Boris Nemtsov, leader of the Union of Right-Wing Forces (SPS) faction in the Russian State Duma, and Anatol Liabedzka, leader of Belarus' liberal United Civic Party (UCP), appeared in the 4 September issue of the leftist newspaper Sovetskaya Rossiya. The paper quoted Nemtsov as telling Liabedzka that he had arranged for UCP leaders to meet with Vladislav Surkov, deputy head of the Russian presidential administration, whom he called "the most influential person in the Kremlin."

In the transcript, the SPS leader also suggested that the Belarusian opposition should support unification of Belarus and Russia along the lines of the European Union, because it would help to overthrow Lukashenka. Liabedzka reportedly agreed. Belarus' largest government-controlled newspaper, Sovetskaya Belorussiya, long considered a Lukashenka mouthpiece, also published the conversation, leaving in place Nemtsov's question, "Your phone is, of course, tapped?"

Following the publication, Nemtsov filed a complaint with Russian Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov that the conversation was tapped illegally. On 6 September, Ustinov ordered Moscow Prosecutor Mikhail Avdyukov to launch an inquiry.

Liabedzka told TOL* he was planning to file a similar complaint with the Belarusian prosecutor's office. He said, however, that he had few hopes for a serious investigation, as he was sure the conversation had been tapped by Lukashenka's secret services. Liabedzka confirmed to TOL that the published wiretaps were of his talks with Nemtsov. Several Russian news media quoted Nemtsov as saying he had spoken with Liabedzka by telephone from his Duma office. "In spite of the confidential nature of the conversation, all that I said I had voiced earlier in my public statements regarding Lukashenka's policy and the prospects of the Belarusian-Russian union," Nemtsov said.

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According to Liabedzka, publication of the telephone call was designed to block further contacts between the Russian government and the Belarusian opposition. Instead, he suggested, the transcript demonstrated that Lukashenka could no longer monopolize contacts with Russia.

Lukashenka's relations with Putin have deteriorated noticeably since the two leaders met in Moscow on 14 August. After the talks, Putin suggested at a joint press conference that Belarus and Russia hold a referendum in May 2003 on "ultimate unification." Belarus' six regions would have the same rights as the 89 subjects of the Russian Federation, and the new state's constitution should be based on that of Russia, Putin said. The Russian president added that other options for integration, including the European Union model, were also acceptable.

On arrival at the Minsk airport the same day, Lukashenka told journalists that Putin's unification plan was unacceptable. He also rejected the idea of E.U.-like integration, saying that it would destroy the existing agreements between Belarus and Russia.

On 4 September, in a letter to Lukashenka, Putin set out three options for further Belarusian-Russian integration: forming a single state; creating a supranational entity similar to the European Union; or unification based on the existing Union State Treaty. Putin suggested setting up a special joint group charged with "regularly informing the presidents of Russia and Belarus, as well as the public, about the progress and results of its work," Putin's press office reported.

Lukashenka told reporters in the town of Polatsk on 7 September that a new working group was not needed. "Those who prepared the letter, maybe [Putin] himself, appear to have forgotten that we already have a Belarusian-Russian joint group, which, under the treaty, is working on an act that would determine how to construct the Union State; this would be the constitution of the future union," he said.

"As for Putin's message," Lukashenka continued, "this message was reported to me by Russian media outlets and Belarusian ones responded. I want to add nothing to this. Someone appears to have aimed to stage a propaganda action rather than send a message." He concluded, "The leadership of Russia has shown today that it does not want an equitable union."

Since taking office in 1994, Lukashenka has used the prize of integration with Russia to obtain support from segments of the population nostalgic for the Soviet Union. Favorable economic ties, such as low prices for Russian gas and oil and access to Russian markets, have helped keep the largely unreformed Belarusian state-owned industries afloat. Analysts both in Russia and Belarus say that the Russian government has taken a more pragmatic approach in its relations with Belarus since Vladimir Putin replaced Boris Yeltsin as Russia's president in 2000.

*This article was edited and adapted from Transitions Online. A longer version is available at: www.tol.cz

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