The First Shall Be Last

• Share

This is likely to be an autumn of excitement in Slovenian politics. In November, the country will choose a new president, and in the same month could also close talks with the European Union and gain entry to NATO. But in a country whose political stability and comparative prosperity have made it a prime candidate for early entrance to the rich nations' club, the E.U. debate has begun to take on a more skeptical note.

Slovenian anti-globalization activists have turned the debate on NATO mainly into an ideological battleground by portraying the military alliance as one of the ugly faces of globalization. When it comes to the E.U., however, the concerns are much more practical. And the loudest expressions of concern are coming from an unlikely source: the government, until this year a headstrong E.U. supporter. The multibillion-euro question being asked is: Is it really worth it?

Not so long ago, the answer to this question would have been a self-evident "yes," with the Slovenian government banking on post-accession E.U. aid to the tune of 3% of the country's GDP and basing its development program for the European Commission (E.C.) on this figure. The water was muddied this January, however, when the E.C. lowered its estimates of how much aid the 10 candidate countries can expect after they enter the union, probably in 2004. The revised proposals confirmed that, in the queue for structural funds, the poorest regions in the new member states would stand well behind the poorest regions in the E.U.'s current club of 15.

Surprisingly, this year the E.U. skepticism has increasingly been coming from the government. Headed by Janez Drnovsek, a politician for whom E.U. membership has always been a key goal, the government has grown increasingly tart in its statements since January, when the E.C. lowered the Agenda 2000 estimates on how much financial aid the candidate countries can expect when they join the E.U.

Igor Strmsnik, one of the government's main E.U. negotiators, is always careful to explain that Slovenia is not joining the E.U. principally because of money. "We only need aid from the European structural funds during the transition period, which should be long enough to bring the infrastructure of the Slovenian economy to a level at which Slovenia could start making payments to the structural funds."

Regardless of this altruistic-sounding spin, the Slovenian government is not about to give up what it feels rightfully belongs to it. "Our current estimates show that under the new distribution, Slovenia could get an amount equaling between 0.6 and 0.7% of the Slovenian GDP. Going down from 3% to well below 1% is absolutely unacceptable for us," Strmsnik says. "This is just a fraction more than the 0.3% Slovenia is currently receiving from the European Commission. It is not going to be enough for the changes necessary for economic and social cohesion."

Strmsnik describes aid money from the structural funds as one of the main benefits that Slovenia expected from membership, even if the country only needs help for a transitional period until its economy can compete with other European economies. "Such a big difference in funding could put in question the existence of the very institutions that Slovenia created at the European Commission's demand and with its funding," says Strmsnik. "We are not being greedy and we don't want funds that aren't there. Nor are we trying to portray ourselves as less developed than we actually are in order to get more money. We only want what others in the European family are getting; we want to be as equal as we can be."

Judging from the changes made to the E.U.'s Agenda 2000 funding plans, the new members are going to be much less than equal. Until 2006, the aid that the future members will receive will be substantially less than the money the four poorest members are currently getting. Even after 2006, they can expect to receive a mere 55% of the projected aid per capita received by Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Ireland, the four poorest current members. What's more, some projections suggest that in its very first year of membership, Slovenia could become a net contributor to the E.U.

MORE STORIES Ukraine: Kuchmagate: Two Years On Slovakia: Meciar Beaten, NATO looms Republika Srpska: In Bed With Iraq? Slovenia: Still want to join E.U.? Russia: Chechen threat from Georgia Macedonia: Opposition Takes Elections SPECIAL Yugoslavia: Nations in Change Transitions Online News from Europe's 28 post-communist countries

This is a grim prospect. However, Slovenia's foreign minister, Dimitrij Rupel, is putting on a brave face, even sounding optimistic about the results of the E.U.'s 1999 summit in Berlin, at which the number of candidates was increased but the funds earmarked for new members were kept the same. In May 2002, when the foreign ministers of the 10 candidate countries gathered in Warsaw, he chose a more pragmatic tack, urging his counterparts at least to form a united front when discussing the financial packages. It is in the interests of all candidate countries, Rupel said, to demand equal treatment for all candidates.

United or not, the applicants will have by far the weaker bargaining position at the negotiating table. E.U. member states may be divided on how to allocate structural funds, but they are agreed that, at least for a transitional period, the new members will not have equal access to structural funds, just as their citizens will not enjoy complete freedom of movement within the E.U. and their farmers will not receive the same generous subsidies under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). And from that reduced pot of funds, the applicants will receive according to their needs. Slovenia's proud status as one of the most advanced of the E.U. applicants has turned from a blessing into a curse.

When Eneko Landaburu, the E.C.'s director general for enlargement, visited Slovenia in July, he conceded that Slovenia was in a difficult position. "We are not assigning the influx of money from structural funds only according to the country's GDP per capita; we are also taking into consideration other criteria such as population, unemployment, [and] GDP. Slovenia is not in the most favorable position. It wants more, which is perfectly legitimate, but we will have to see what we can do about that," he told the Slovenian daily Delo.

In the longer term, Slovenia's eligibility for Objective 1 aid, which is open to all poor E.U. regions, and money from the Cohesion Fund, which is earmarked for new members, will depend on several factors. The first is whether — or, more realistically, how — the E.U. adjusts its criteria for support. Applied strictly, the current formula would disqualify 15 regions in the current E.U. from Objective 1 support, as the E.U.'s GDP per capita should fall by an estimated 13% after enlargement. But when current allocations are reviewed ahead of the 2007-2013 funding period, the current net beneficiaries of the aid programs will almost certainly oppose equal treatment for the E.U.'s newcomers. What is certain is that, as every state will have a veto, there will be intense horse-trading before any final settlement is agreed upon.

Slovenia now only has to negotiate the always thorny political issues of agricultural and budgetary policies. Talks are due in November. That could be a momentous month. In the same 30 days, Slovenia will also find out the fate of its NATO ambitions, and elect a president. The front-runner, Prime Minister Drnovsek, is keen to wrap up his long reign as premier with Slovenia headed irreversibly toward the E.U.

So far the debate about money allocations does not appear to have shifted public opinion significantly: A July Politbarometer survey showed that 50% of Slovenes think joining the E.U. would be good, while 27% oppose accession. These figures are not very different from earlier numbers. The question is whether Drnovsek will be able to maintain them long enough to keep the country on course to the E.U. and at the same time switch his title from prime minister to president. But even if the general public might still think joining the E.U. is a good idea, the media have been increasingly critical of the way the government has been treading the path toward the E.U. and NATO. The popular mood could swing either way. For now, the only safe prediction on the outcome of the politically tumultuous autumn ahead of Slovenia is that anything could happen. Big include

*This article was edited and adapted from Transitions Online. A longer version is available at: www.tol.cz

Covering all of the region's 28 post-communist countries Click Here