Meciar Beaten, NATO Beckons

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Slovakia's chances of joining NATO and the European Union look significantly better after a majority of the Slovak electorate voted for members of the previous governing coalition and pro-Western parties.

Going into the two-day elections on Friday, the results looked unpredictable, with many small parties still with a chance of entering parliament and with the E.U. and NATO voicing fears that Vladimir Meciar, who governed Slovakia with a strong arm from 1993 to 1998, might regain power. Throughout the year, NATO, the E.U., and a variety of leading Western politicians had warned that his return might jeopardize the country's chances of joining Europe's major political and security organizations.

However, Meciar did emerge with the largest number of votes in a relatively large turnout (70.1% of Slovakia's 4.1 million voters went to the ballot box). His 19.5% share, which gives his Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) 36 seats, means that he has topped every parliamentary election since the division of Czechoslovakia in 1993. The possibility that he will be able to form a government currently looks next to impossible, however, as none of the parties that will sit in the new parliament has said it is willing to share power with him and most have categorically ruled out the possibility.

Instead, with the last votes still to be counted, the most likely government would consist of the three parties that formed the last government, together with a new party, the Alliance of New Citizens (ANO). Together with ANO, the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU) of outgoing Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda (28 seats), the Hungarian Coalition Party (20 seats), and the Christian Democrats (15 seats) would be able to form a tight three-vote majority in the 150-seat parliament. ANO, which means "yes" in Slovak and is headed by the owner of the country's most popular private television station, will have 15 seats in parliament. The four parties have already begun to talk about forming a new government, ignoring the argument from HZDS vice chairman Jan Kovarcik that the HZDS, as the largest party in parliament, should also be in the government.

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Sunday's results were welcomed by the European Commission, which in its first response expressed its confidence that the elections would lead to the creation of a government that will continue reforms and take the country into the European Union. The U.S. ambassador in Bratislava, Ronald Weiser, said the results sent "a strong indication for Slovakia in November," when NATO will invite applicant countries to join. Speaking on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Bruce Jackson, chairman of the U.S. Committee on NATO, went further, saying that the "election results eliminated the last barrier on the way of Slovakia to the North Atlantic Treaty."

Foreign politicians and officials repeatedly made it clear during the elections that the E.U. and NATO might not accept Slovakia if Meciar and the HZDS were in government. This sustained policy was declared unexpectedly openly by a Western diplomatic source quoted in the Financial Times just three days before the elections. "Yes, we have interfered in the internal affairs of Slovakia. We have done so successfully," the newspaper quoted him as saying.

Meciar also had to face major aggravations and problems in the run-up to the elections. A police investigation launched into how he funded the purchase of a $1 million villa began early in the year and has yet to be completed. Then, in mid-July, an ally and former head of the secret services was deported from South Africa to face a range of charges. The HZDS said the actions were politically motivated. Although hardcore supporters remained unaffected — Peter Kurek, a 70-year-old pensioner from Trencin, in the HZDS heartland, said that "the nation ought to buy [Meciar the villa] for everything that he has done for this country" — the problems may explain some of the erosion in Meciar's support. The HZDS won 350,000 fewer votes than in 1998.

*This article was edited and adapted from Transitions Online. A longer version is available at: www.tol.cz

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