Why the Big Blizzard Fizzled in New York

5 minute read
Updated: | Originally published: ;

Mother Nature took a huge swing at New York City and missed by miles. And while the Blizzard of 2015 turned into the Fizzard of 2015 for the Big Apple, just up the coast, Providence and Boston got walloped as scheduled. Beantown conspiracy theorists are wondering: Did this blizzard get bribed?

Not quite, it just got shoved a few miles to the east at the last minute, which changes everything as storms move up the Atlantic coast. That more easterly track is exactly what computer models had been predicting until three days before storm hit—but a critical shift by one model moved the storm track a little more to the west, which triggered the snowpocalyptic forecast. “Before that, the models all took the storm out to sea,” says Joel Gratz, a meteorologist and CEO of Open Snow, which makes detailed snow forecasts for skiers. “That is a something to be cautious about when they pick something out so late in the game.”

Blizzard 2015: How New Yorkers and New Englanders Shared Photos

Marissa McClain posted this photo from Brookline, Mass. saying "Ventured outside. Found this man skiing down summit."Marissa McClain (@marissamcclain) via Instagram
Apoorva posted this photo from Times Square in New York City.Apoorva (@_apoorva) via Instagram
Nicole Drummond posted from the Brooklyn borough of New York City saying "It was quiet streets early this morning in DUMBO and we got to explore it all!"Nicole Drummond (@nicoleraedrummond) via Instagram
Andrea Alimonta posted this photo from New York City saying "Stay Warm!"Andrea Alimonta (@andre3nto) via Instagram
John DeFoor posted this photo in Atlantic City, N.J. saying "The view from my room. I cant wait to hit the beach!"John DeFoor (@JohnDeFoor) via Instagram
Jaka Vinsek posted this photo of an empty Grand Central Station in New York on Jan. 26, 2015. Jaka Vinsek (@jakavinsek) via Instagram
Gwen Betts posted this photo in Boston saying "Dear Midwest: Please send snow blowers."Gwen Betts (@gwennasaurus) via Instagram
Meshari posted this photo in Boston saying "Go home. Stay there. Seriously!"Meshari (@_meshari) via Instagram
Garret posted this photo from New York City saying "A light with no purpose tonight thanks to the might of Juno."Garret P (@garretp) via Instagram
Brandon Sullivan posted this photo from saying "These cars in Boston won't be going anywhere soon."Brandon Sullivan—AccuWeather (@btsullivan91) via Instagram
David Everly posted this photo of the Manhattan skyline from Brooklyn.David Everly (@selfproclaim) via Instagram
Gautham Asok posted this photo from the Emerald Necklace Conservancy in Boston.Gautham Asok (@gauthamasok) via Instagram
Adrian Moyer posted this photo from the Queens borough of New York City saying "Stay warm NYC, apparently there's a storm coming."Adrian Moyer (@_adrianmoy) via Instagram
Azor Ahai posted this photo from New York City saying "The blizzard soon cometh."Azor Ahai (@crazy_kwasi) via Instagram

Why did the models goof? There are four weather models used by meteorologists around the world: the American Global Forecast System, the European model, called the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UKMET model from the U.K., and the Canadian model. The European model had shifted the track west and it has been the best predictor, with the UKMET model second and the American third. Late in the game, though, the UKMET model kicked the storm that critical few miles. “Over the weekend, the UKMET model nudged it a little bit further east,” says Gratz. “That just kind of gave me pause when the number two model in the world is pushing the storm a few more miles out to sea.”

The National Weather Service (NWS), on the other hand, kept jacking up the forecast totals even as the models were giving a broad range of snowfall, from six inches to three feet. “NWS’s adjustments were all in the ‘more severe’ category, says Ryan Maue, a research meteorologist at the private firm WeatherBEL. “That’s an ominous signal that suggested NWS had a high-level of confidence in their forecast. However, it was clear at the time that the exact opposite was true—this was a low-confidence solution, meaning the chance of a 30-inch snowfall occurring in NYC required everything to ‘go right’ for the blizzard’s track, intensity, and motion.” Private forecasters, including the Weather Channel, might have been skeptical about the 30-inch forecast, says Maue, but they don’t want to risk sending a mixed message that confuses the public about what to do.

There was never any doubt that New England was going to get nailed, but that was the easier part of the forecast—a lock, says Gratz. It’s the back edge of a storm that carries the most uncertainty. That left forecasters with a bit of a conundrum: follow the models and predict a dire and dangerous storm, or back off a bit, which might lead both officials and civilians to let down their guard at the wrong time.

MORE: Why Blizzards Turn Us Into Irrational Hoarders at the Grocery Store

Officials reacted to the fear factor. And, as Maue points out, the NWS absolutely nailed the last catastrophic storm, Hurricane Sandy, which caught some government agencies off guard. So in New York, hundreds of flights were canceled, mass transit shut down, stores closed and people loaded up on necessities, some in a panic state, in anticipation of not going anywhere for a couple of days. But the snow machine turned off at about 10 p.m. Monday night. Central Park ended up with about six inches of snow by Tuesday morning. The NWS’s Gary Szatkoski felt compelled to tweet an apology. “My deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public,” he said. “You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn’t. Once again, I’m sorry.”

If weather is difficult to predict, precipitation is harder and snow even more difficult. The reason is that forecasters not only have to get the storm track right, they also have to nail the temperature, since the temperature influences how snow crystals form, which in turn determines how much snow falls. It’s compounding complexity and Atlantic winter storms have shown no discernible pattern over the decades.

East Coast Readies Itself for Up to 3 Feet of Snow

Snow Blizzard New York City
A couple kisses during a blizzard in Times Square in New York City on Jan. 26, 2015.Benjamin Lowy—Getty Images Reportage for TIME
A man crosses the street in New York City during a snow storm in New York City on Jan. 26, 2015. Benjamin Lowy—Getty Images Reportage for TIME
People walk in front of the Manhattan Bridge in the DUMBO neighborhood as it snows in Brooklyn, NY on Jan. 26, 2015Photograph by Andrew Hinderaker
People walk in front of the Manhattan Bridge in the DUMBO neighborhood as it snows in Brooklyn, NY on Jan. 26, 2015Andrew Hinderaker
Times Square Snow Storm New York City
A man walks through the middle of a snow storm in Times Square, New York City on Jan. 26, 2015. Benjamin Lowy—Getty Images Reportage for TIME
A man waits to cross the street in Brooklyn, NY on Jan. 26, 2015Photograph by Andrew Hinderaker
A man waits to cross the street in Brooklyn, NY on Jan. 26, 2015.Andrew Hinderaker
Winter Weather Pennsylvania
A pedestrian passes through Johnstown Central Park, in Johnstown, Pa., Monday, Jan. 26, 2015.Todd Berkey—The Tribune-Democrat/AP
APTOPIX Winter Weather
Fishing boats ride out the storm at dock in Scituate, Mass., on Jan. 27, 2015. Michael Dwyer—AP
A worker pushes a snow blower down Lexington Avenue near Grand Central Terminal as it snows in the Manhattan borough of New York
A worker pushes a snow blower down Lexington Avenue in Manhattan on Jan. 26, 2015.Carlo Allegri—Reuters
A man stands in falling snow on West 42nd street in Times Square in New York
A man stands in falling snow on West 42nd street in Times Square in New York City on Jan. 26, 2015. Mike Segar—Reuters
Snow Blizzard New York City
Two people huddle for warmth on the street in New York City on Jan. 26, 2015.Benjamin Lowy—Getty Images Reportage for TIME
APTOPIX Winter Weather
A man strolls on a walking path at Liberty State Park, with the Statue of Liberty in the distance, in Jersey City, N.J. on Jan. 26, 2015.Julio Cortez—AP
US-WEATHER-STORM
A tugboat sails on the East River during a snow storm in New York City on Jan. 26, 2015. Jewel Samad—AFP/Getty Images
Winter Storm in New York
People walk over the Brooklyn Bridge during a large winter storm in New York City on Jan. 26, 2015.Andrew Kelly—EPA
A man crosses the street during a snow storm in New York City on Jan. 26, 2015. Benjamin Lowy—Getty Images Reportage for TIME
Snow Storm Winter Weather Juno
A woman walks though Central Park as it snows in the Manhattan borough of New York City on Jan. 26, 2015. Carlo Allegri—Reuters
Children play in Central Park as it snows in the Manhattan borough of New York
Children play in Central Park as it snows in the Manhattan borough of New York City on Jan. 26, 2015. Carlo Allegri—Reuters
Snow Storm Winter Weather Juno
Loaves of bread sit on a sparse shelf at a grocery store in Port Washington, New York on Jan. 26, 2015. Shannon Stapleton—Reuters
Snow Storm Winter Weather Juno
A crewmember de-ices a Frontier Airlines plane at LaGuardia Airport in New York City, Jan. 26, 2015. Seth Wenig—AP
Snow Storm Winter Weather Juno
Crews load road salt into trucks ahead of a major winter storm in Chelsea, Mass. on Jan. 26, 2015.Brian Snyder—Reuters
Snow Blizzard New York City
Snow falls in New York City on Jan. 26, 2015.Benjamin Lowy—Getty Images Reportage for TIME

Gratz does admit that there’s another possible reason behind the blown forecasts. When meteorologists see a big storm brewing they get a little too excited about it and want to share their knowledge and forecasting chops.

It’s only natural. Just like the weather.

Gorgeous, Dreamlike Photos of Snowflakes Shot on an iPhone

The following photos were shot on Greg Miller's iPhone: Snowflake IGreg Miller
Snowflake IIGreg Miller
Snowflake IIIGreg Miller
Snowflake IVGreg Miller
Snowflake VGreg Miller
Snowflake VIGreg Miller
Miller photographed the snowflakes by holding a loupe up to the lens on his iPhoneTina Chiappetta-Miller

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