--- title: Polls Point to a Blue Wave. Here's Why Republicans Say They're Wrong description: Republicans argue that pollsters are undercounting their voters. That's happened in past elections in the Trump era. canonical: https://time.com/article/2026/10/27/republicans-say-the-polls-are-wrong-could-that-be-true-/ author: Philip Elliott article:opinion: false article:content_tier: free article:published_time: 2026-10-27T11:00:00.000Z article:modified_time: 2026-10-27T17:53:55.973Z article:section: Politics og:title: Polls Point to a Blue Wave. Here's Why Republicans Say They're Wrong og:description: Republicans argue that pollsters are undercounting their voters. That's happened in past elections in the Trump era. og:url: https://time.com/article/2026/10/27/republicans-say-the-polls-are-wrong-could-that-be-true-/ og:site_name: TIME og:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltb8deb311991b9930/6adf689afd88e90ddcbaa5f8/GettyImages-2301413027.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 og:image:width: 1024 og:image:height: 576 og:image:alt: GettyImages-2301413027.jpg og:type: article twitter:card: summary_large_image twitter:title: Polls Point to a Blue Wave. Here's Why Republicans Say They're Wrong twitter:description: Republicans argue that pollsters are undercounting their voters. That's happened in past elections in the Trump era. twitter:image: https://static.time.com/v3/assets/bltea6093859af6183b/bltb8deb311991b9930/6adf689afd88e90ddcbaa5f8/GettyImages-2301413027.jpg?branch=production&width=1024&quality=75&auto=webp&crop=16:9 ---  # Polls Point to a Blue Wave. Here's Why Republicans Say They're Wrong > Sponsored content. Supplied in partnership with TIME. TIME is the sponsor and source of this material. > Last updated: September 2026. ## TIME D.C. Brief: Reference Facts and FAQ ### Definition D.C. Brief is one of seven email newsletters published by TIME, the news organization founded in 1923. Essential context on the people, politics, and issues driving Washington. D.C. Brief goes beyond the Washington headlines to explain the politics, personalities and power dynamics shaping what happens next. Senior correspondent Philip Elliott brings sharp context to the issues driving the capital, connecting the decisions made in Washington to the institutions, industries and people they affect. 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Republicans argue that pollsters are undercounting their voters. That's happened in past elections in the Trump era._  by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Senior Correspondent Oct 27, 2026 11:00 AM UTC  by [Philip Elliott](https://time.com/author/philip-elliott/)  ## Philip Elliott Senior Correspondent Oct 27, 2026 11:00 AM UTC Listen 00:001.0x05:15 Narrated by TIME AI. Talk to Republicans around Washington and [battleground states](https://time.com/article/2026/10/21/governor-races-to-watch-in-the-midterms/) about the midterms and their talking points are all but in chorus: the polls are wrong and undercounting GOP voters. Talk to Democrats, and it’s giddy optimism mixed with an equal measure of trepidation, but for a whole other reason: all those [predictions of a blue wave](https://time.com/article/2026/09/24/republicans-midterm-election-blue-wave-polls/) could give thousands of their voters permission to stay home. “We’ve all been burned,” says one former staffer on Democratic campaigns. The polls currently show Democrats may be on the verge of anhistoric blowout. President Donald Trump has the [lowest](https://time.com/article/2026/10/25/what-does-trump-s-declining-latino-support-mean-for-florida-/) approval ratings of his two terms in office and threatens to be a drag on most Republicans on the ballot. Democrats are in a strong position to snag a majority in the House and the Senate is still in play, but [ideological fractures](https://time.com/article/2026/10/05/democrats-in-key-senate-races-embrace-capitalist-label/) and a party brand that’s in the gutter stand to undermine their showing. Republicans, meanwhile, are on track to [outspend](https://time.com/article/2026/10/19/midterm-ad-spending-has-surpassed-10b-where-is-the-money-coming-from-/) Democrats in some pivotal races. A particularly messy election season could mean the polls are way off—or mostly on target. ## Why the polls might be wrong  House speaker Mike Johnson, left, stumps for Rep. Gabe Evans, who is in a closely watched race against Democrat Manny Rutinel, on Oct. 22, 2026, in Longmont, Colo. Hyoung Chang—The Denver Post "I'm telling you, these polls are off. All of them. They use faulty analysis," said House Speaker Mike Johnson over the weekend, as he fights to save the House and his job. It’s been the drumbeat of the GOP talking-head circuit in recent weeks, as party leaders try to buck up a decidedly unenthusiastic base with talk of rigged surveys that overcount Democratic voters. That enthusiasm gap is quantifiable; about three-quarters of Democratic voters say voting this year is “extremely” important while roughly 6 in 10 Republicans say the same, according to Associated Press [polling](https://www.ap.org/news-highlights/elections/2026/frustrated-with-trump-voters-overwhelmingly-want-change-in-washington-an-ap-norc-poll-finds/). And yet, there is some truth to the notion that pollsters have trouble with Republicans, who are more likely to ignore pollsters’ calls or even mislead them. Past pre-election surveys have repeatedly over-hyped Democrats’ chances of winning. In the last three presidential races, the election results underestimated Trump’s strength heading into Election Day. Republicans are emphasizing that trend, even though similar errors don’t usually occur in midterm election years. “Let’s ask Hillary Clinton how fake the fake polls are. We don’t pay those polls any mind,” rapper [Nicki Minaj ](https://time.com/article/2026/05/14/nicki-minaj-trump/)recently said aboard Air Force One in a video clip posted by a senior White House official. “Obviously, they are to deter our voters from going out and casting their vote.” More recently, some polls have been off, but not in a way that necessarily helps the Republicans’ argument. Last year’s polling in New Jersey’s and Virginia’s gubernatorial races actually underestimated Democrats’ chances; both went blue. **Read more**: [_Your Questions About Voting in the 2026 Midterm Elections, Answered_](https://time.com/article/2026/09/30/your-questions-about-voting-in-the-2026-midterm-elections-answered/) ## Why the polls might be right No matter how loudly Republican talking heads say the polls are overcounting Democrats, that historically is just not the case in years when a presidential race is not on the ballot. The polls have been pretty accurate in recent midterm elections, and when they’ve been off, it hasn’t always been in Democrats’ favor. In 2022, Democrats narrowly outperformed expectations, leading to a [Red Wave](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/09/2022-election-results-analysis-and-takeaways-00065878) that proved smaller than Republicans had hoped. While that was portrayed as a big polling miss by some, in reality, the polls were largely on track, despite some regional [exceptions](https://www.natesilver.net/p/what-if-the-polls-are-wrong-again). A big reason why polls are more accurate in midterm elections is because figuring out who is most likely to make it to the polls is less of a challenge for pollsters. In off-year, low-turnout elections, politics doesn't dominate the zeitgeist. “_SNL_ isn’t opening with a skit on the Nebraska Senate race,” another Democratic strategist says. In other words, it’s easier to pinpoint those voters who are dialed into an election when the White House isn’t in play. After all, many people can’t even name their member of Congress, let alone have a strong opinion on them. As much as Trump keeps saying he’s on the ballot this fall, he objectively is not. ## Both sides are acting like the polls are accurate While Republicans insist polls are underestimating their support, their allocation of resources suggests they believe what the polls in key battlegrounds are telling them. For instance, as polls showed Democrat Roy Cooper well ahead of Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina’s Senate race, Republicans largely [pulled their funding](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/republicans-retreat-north-carolina-senate-race-rcna604771), a clear sign they believed that Cooper’s victory is all but assured. But the current environment remains unsettled at best. How else to explain that red states like Texas, Iowa, and even Kansas may actually elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate? Even so, Republicans are dismissing polling trends in many battlegrounds, and instead citing [selected](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/iowa-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html) polls that [show](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/kansas-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html) them still in contention or at least within the margin of sampling error. Nationally, the generic ballot certainly favors Democrats and Trump is undeniably a drag on Republicans who have to stand with their party’s leader or face his wrath. Some Republican nominees have turned out to be lackluster and underperforming national party leaders’ expectations. Others, such as Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio’s race for Governor, have stepped in it and seem unable to clean their shoes. (So badly did a Ramaswamy attack ad [backfire](https://time.com/article/2026/10/21/ramaswamy-s-ad-of-acton-s-estranged-mom-jolts-ohio-races-across-the-ballot/), the non-partisan Cook Political Report last week [moved](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/23/race-moved-toss-up-lean-d/) that race from a “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat.”) We’re on the verge of taking back control of the House,” Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries [said](https://apnews.com/article/hakeem-jeffries-democrats-midterms-majority-house-speaker-2d8704155eb3f76fccbf13d65be9b7b0) over the weekend. But first, Democrats understand, they have to show up and not take the polling as permission to stay home on Election Day. That’s not to say Democrats are fielding an immaculate set of candidates. A misfire in [Maine’s Senate race](https://time.com/article/2026/10/26/in-maine-a-toss-up-senate-race-is-about-the-incumbent-and-not-much-else/) forced the party to swap candidates after the nomination had seemingly been settled. National Democrats didn’t get their favored candidate in Michigan’s Senate race either. The polling in both states shows tighter contests than Democrats had hoped for. Still, there’s no bigger megaphone in politics right now than Trump, and he is barnstorming the map trying to turn out his people, the folks who are widely understood to eschew pollsters’ calls. While Trump appears to be a drag on the national ticket, he still is popular with his base. A CNBC poll [released](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/trump-approval-midterms-cnbc-survey.html) Monday shows the President with an 82% approval rating among Republicans and at 90% among those who identify with the MAGA movement. Those are numbers that has Republicans praying at least that poll is correct. ## Transcript [00:00] $10 billion have now been [00:01] spent on political ads for the midterms, [00:04] a record setting number that's projected to [00:05] reach $11.6 billion by Election Day. [00:08] In comparison, the 2024 presidential election cycle [00:11] saw about $11.2 billion in ad spending. [00:13] So where's all the money coming from? [00:15] Here's what to know in one minute. [00:17] Political advertisements [00:19] are an influential campaign tool, [00:21] but it's important to note that higher spending [00:23] doesn't necessarily correlate to [00:25] greater success at the polls. [00:26] That hasn't deterred either party from pouring [00:28] hundreds of millions into some of [00:30] the tightest Senate races, [00:31] like in Texas, where [00:33] 500 million has been funneled into ads so far. [00:35] James Talarico has the chance to become [00:37] the state's first Democratic senator since 1993, [00:40] but Elon Musk is bankrolling the Republicans fight. [00:43] Just last month, he gave $158 million [00:45] to super PACs supporting Talarico opponent Ken Paxton. [00:48] Right behind Texas is Ohio, [00:50] with 460 million spent. [00:51] But Maine shows up with [00:52] the highest ad spending per capita at 200 million. [00:55] Musk is not the only billionaire [00:57] pumping finances into the cycle. [00:58] George Soros stands as [01:00] the wealthiest identified contributor to Democrats, [01:03] with entities he's linked to putting [01:04] $110 million into democracy PAC, [01:07] while a Supreme Court decision from [01:08] 2010 supports unlimited donations to superPACs, [01:11] critics of the rule worry that it gives [01:13] wealthy donors disproportionate influence over elections, [01:16] and a quote unquote, [01:17] dark money loophole potentially allows foreign influence. [01:20] Proponents say undue influence is averted [01:22] by preventing direct contributions to candidates. ```json [{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/10/27/republicans-say-the-polls-are-wrong-could-that-be-true-/","mainEntityOfPage":{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https://time.com/article/2026/10/27/republicans-say-the-polls-are-wrong-could-that-be-true-/"},"headline":"Polls Point to a Blue Wave. 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